Simon is getting stronger and could reach Category 3, about 115 mph, by Sat 12 PM. Right now: 40 mph, 175 mi (285 km) SSE of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. No coastal watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: Mazatlán, 8 mi (Mon 12 PM). Next NHC update: 9:00 PM CST.
Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 002. Models: ATCF run 2026100718 UTC.
Built from the NHC best track and the latest advisory.
It all began on October 4: a loose disturbance near 11.8°N 91.5°W. That was 3 days ago. Right now is its peak so far. Along the way its center has covered roughly 737 miles, or 1,186 km.
Today Simon blows at 40 mph (tropical storm), its pressure sits at 1004 mb and it is heading WNW at 8 mph (13 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 70 miles from the center.
By Mon, the end of the official forecast, the NHC expects a category 1 with 92 mph winds, about 30 miles from Mazatlán. Before that it should peak near 115 mph around Sat 12 PM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 8 miles from Mazatlán, around Mon 12 PM.
10 cities within 435 miles of Simon’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.
Official, word for word, from NHC advisory 002.
Nobody is under a watch or warning because of Simon right now.
What Simon does on land, according to the NHC. Key numbers highlighted.
Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Colima and Michoacan through Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at NHC graphic.
Discussion and outlook from public advisory 002, quoted as issued.
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 101.6 West. Simon is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tomorrow, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Simon is expected to remain south of Mexico through Friday, but approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Simon is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday. It could become a major hurricane by Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
Simon’s top sustained wind from its first fix to now (white) and what the NHC expects next (dashed orange).
Active flood, wind and tropical alerts from the National Weather Service in states near the track (TX). Not all of them are Simon’s fault.
At the latest advisory (300 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026), the center of Simon was near 15.5N, 101.6W, about 175 mi (285 km) SSE of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).
It is moving WNW at 8 mph (13 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Mon 12 PM about 30 miles from Mazatlán, as a category 1. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.
Simon is currently a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. It would need another 34 mph to become a hurricane.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
