LiveAdvisory 005a700 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026Atlantic

Tropical Storm IsaiasLive tracker

Still bulking up

Isaias is getting stronger and could reach Category 2, about 109 mph, by Fri 1 PM. Right now: 63 mph, 200 mi (325 km) WNW of Progreso, Mexico. 4 coastal zones under watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: New Orleans, 159 mi (Sat 1 AM). Next NHC update: 10:00 PM CDT.

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TDTS12345ForecastPastConeHU WarningHU WatchTS WarningTS Watch
The next five daysTop sustained wind (mph) at each official NHC forecast point · dashed lines = category thresholds
TS 39CAT 1 74CAT 2 96CAT 3 111CAT 4 13063NOW7 PM81THU1 AM92THU1 PM104FRI1 AM109PEAKFRI1 PM69SAT1 AM35SAT1 PM17SUN1 PM

Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 005a. Models: ATCF run 2026100800 UTC.

The story of Isaias

Where it came from, how strong it got and where it is headed.

It all began on October 4: a loose disturbance near 22.0°N 96.5°W. That was 3 days ago. Right now is its peak so far. Since then its center has traveled about 246 miles (396 km).

At the latest advisory Isaias is a tropical storm with 63 mph winds and a central pressure of 994 mb, moving ENE at 8 mph (13 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 60 miles from the center.

By Sun, the end of the official forecast, the NHC expects a post-tropical with 17 mph winds, about 416 miles from Charleston. Before that it should peak near 109 mph around Fri 1 PM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 159 miles from New Orleans, around Sat 1 AM.

Closest approach

5 cities within 435 miles of Isaias’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.

New Orleans
159mi · 256 km
Sat 1 AMTropical storm
Outside cone
Cancún
290mi · 467 km
Thu 1 PMCategory 1
Outside cone
Tampa
313mi · 503 km
Fri 1 PMCategory 2
Outside cone
Charleston
401mi · 645 km
Sun 1 PMTropical depression
Outside cone
Wilmington NC
434mi · 699 km
Sun 1 PMTropical depression
Outside cone

Watches & warnings

Official, word for word, from NHC advisory 005a.

Storm Surge Watch
  • Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown
Hurricane Watch
  • Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass
Tropical Storm Watch
  • Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis
  • East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River
Watch vs. warning, in plain English

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and elsewhere around the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Hazards

What Isaias does on land, according to the NHC. Key numbers highlighted.

Storm surge

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL...5-7 ft Mobile Bay...5-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at NHC graphic.

Wind

Hurricane conditions could begin in the Hurricane Watch area late Friday, and tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas by midday Friday.

Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.

Rainfall

Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the states of Campeche and western Yucatan.

From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at NHC graphic and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at NHC graphic

Tornadoes

Tornado potential will increase as rain bands accompanying Isaias approach the northeastern Gulf Coast Friday evening and overnight. This potential will spread inland on Saturday as Isaias continues northward.

Surf

Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: NHC graphic

In the NHC’s words

Discussion and outlook from public advisory 005a, quoted as issued.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 92.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A continued east-northeastward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, with further strengthening expected through Friday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

Intensity

Isaias’s top sustained wind from its first fix to now (white) and what the NHC expects next (dashed orange).

U.S. alerts nearby

Active flood, wind and tropical alerts from the National Weather Service in states near the track (TX, FL, LA, GA, SC, NC, VA, NY, AL, MS). Not all of them are Isaias’s fault.

FL · 57 active alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory, Coastal Flood Statement, Coastal Flood Warning, Flash Flood Warning, Flood Advisory, Flood Warning, Hurricane Watch, Rip Current Statement, Storm Surge Watch, Tropical Cyclone Local Statement, Tropical Storm Watch
  • Flood Warning — Citrus, FL; Levy, FL; Marion, FL · until 2026-10-08 12:00
  • Flash Flood Warning — Hillsborough, FL; Pinellas, FL · until 2026-10-07 22:45
  • Flood Advisory — Hillsborough, FL · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Flood Warning — Baker, FL; Nassau, FL; Charlton, GA · until 2026-10-08 21:00
  • Coastal Flood Statement — Coastal Palm Beach County; Coastal Broward County; Coastal Miami Dade County; Far South Miami-Dade County · until 2026-10-08 10:00
  • Flood Warning — Lake, FL; Volusia, FL · until 2026-10-08 11:00
  • Flood Advisory — Pasco, FL; Pinellas, FL · until 2026-10-07 22:15
  • Rip Current Statement — Mobile Coastal; Baldwin Coastal; Escambia Coastal; Santa Rosa Coastal; Okaloosa Coastal · until 2026-10-11 06:00
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Choctaw; Washington; Clarke; Wilcox; Monroe; Conecuh; Butler; Crenshaw; Escambia; Covington; Mobile Inland; Baldwin Inland; Mobile Central; Baldwin Central; Mobile Coastal; Baldwin Coastal; Escambia Inland; Escambia Coas · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Coastal Levy · until 2026-10-08 01:15
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Coffee; Dale; Henry; Geneva; Houston; North Walton; Central Walton; Holmes; Washington; Jackson; Inland Bay; Calhoun; Inland Gulf; Inland Franklin; South Walton; Coastal Bay; Coastal Gulf; Coastal Franklin; Coastal Jeffe · until 2026-10-08 01:15
  • Storm Surge Watch — Okaloosa Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Santa Rosa Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Storm Surge Watch — Escambia Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Escambia Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Okaloosa Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Escambia Inland · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Okaloosa Inland · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Santa Rosa Inland · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Storm Surge Watch — Santa Rosa Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Storm Surge Watch — Coastal Levy · until 2026-10-08 01:00
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Inland Bay · until 2026-10-08 01:00
  • Hurricane Watch — Coastal Bay · until 2026-10-08 01:00
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Jackson · until 2026-10-08 01:00
  • Storm Surge Watch — Coastal Dixie · until 2026-10-08 01:00
AL · 27 active alerts: Hurricane Watch, Rip Current Statement, Storm Surge Watch, Tropical Cyclone Local Statement, Tropical Storm Watch
  • Rip Current Statement — Mobile Coastal; Baldwin Coastal; Escambia Coastal; Santa Rosa Coastal; Okaloosa Coastal · until 2026-10-11 06:00
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Choctaw; Washington; Clarke; Wilcox; Monroe; Conecuh; Butler; Crenshaw; Escambia; Covington; Mobile Inland; Baldwin Inland; Mobile Central; Baldwin Central; Mobile Coastal; Baldwin Coastal; Escambia Inland; Escambia Coas · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Coffee; Dale; Henry; Geneva; Houston; North Walton; Central Walton; Holmes; Washington; Jackson; Inland Bay; Calhoun; Inland Gulf; Inland Franklin; South Walton; Coastal Bay; Coastal Gulf; Coastal Franklin; Coastal Jeffe · until 2026-10-08 01:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Washington · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Clarke · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Baldwin Inland · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Mobile Inland · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Wilcox · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Storm Surge Watch — Mobile Central · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Storm Surge Watch — Baldwin Central · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Mobile Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Baldwin Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Storm Surge Watch — Baldwin Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Butler · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Conecuh · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Storm Surge Watch — Mobile Coastal · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Mobile Central · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Baldwin Central · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Covington · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Hurricane Watch — Escambia · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Monroe · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Crenshaw · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Geneva · until 2026-10-08 01:00
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Coffee · until 2026-10-08 01:00
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Dale · until 2026-10-08 01:00
MS · 13 active alerts: Hurricane Watch, Storm Surge Watch, Tropical Cyclone Local Statement, Tropical Storm Watch
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Choctaw; Washington; Clarke; Wilcox; Monroe; Conecuh; Butler; Crenshaw; Escambia; Covington; Mobile Inland; Baldwin Inland; Mobile Central; Baldwin Central; Mobile Coastal; Baldwin Coastal; Escambia Inland; Escambia Coas · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Greene · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — George · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Lower St. Bernard; Southeast St. Tammany; Eastern Orleans; Lower Plaquemines; Northern Harrison; Northern Jackson; Southern Hancock; Southern Harrison; Southern Jackson · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Southern Hancock · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Hurricane Watch — Northern Harrison · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Hurricane Watch — Southern Jackson · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Storm Surge Watch — Southern Harrison · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Hurricane Watch — Southern Harrison · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Storm Surge Watch — Southern Hancock · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Storm Surge Watch — Southern Jackson · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Hurricane Watch — Northern Jackson · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Upper St. Bernard; Lower St. Bernard; Southeast St. Tammany; Eastern Orleans; Lower Plaquemines; Northern Harrison; Northern Jackson; Southern Hancock; Southern Harrison; Southern Jackson · until 2026-10-07 21:15
LA · 10 active alerts: Storm Surge Watch, Tropical Cyclone Local Statement, Tropical Storm Watch
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Lower St. Bernard; Southeast St. Tammany; Eastern Orleans; Lower Plaquemines; Northern Harrison; Northern Jackson; Southern Hancock; Southern Harrison; Southern Jackson · until 2026-10-08 00:15
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Eastern Orleans · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Storm Surge Watch — Lower St. Bernard · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Storm Surge Watch — Lower Plaquemines · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Storm Surge Watch — Eastern Orleans · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Lower St. Bernard · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Southeast St. Tammany · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Tropical Storm Watch — Lower Plaquemines · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Storm Surge Watch — Southeast St. Tammany · until 2026-10-08 00:00
  • Tropical Cyclone Local Statement — Upper St. Bernard; Lower St. Bernard; Southeast St. Tammany; Eastern Orleans; Lower Plaquemines; Northern Harrison; Northern Jackson; Southern Hancock; Southern Harrison; Southern Jackson · until 2026-10-07 21:15
GA · 3 active alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory, Flood Warning, Rip Current Statement
  • Flood Warning — Baker, FL; Nassau, FL; Charlton, GA · until 2026-10-08 21:00
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Coastal Nassau; Coastal Flagler; Northeast Coastal St. Johns; Southeast Coastal St. Johns; Coastal Glynn; Coastal Camden · until 2026-10-08 17:00
  • Rip Current Statement — Coastal Nassau; Coastal Flagler; Northeast Coastal St. Johns; Southeast Coastal St. Johns; Coastal Glynn; Coastal Camden · until 2026-10-11 06:00
TX · 2 active alerts: Flood Advisory
  • Flood Advisory — Cameron, TX · until 2026-10-07 20:45
  • Flood Advisory — Cameron, TX · until 2026-10-07 21:00
NC · 1 active alert: Coastal Flood Advisory
  • Coastal Flood Advisory — Inland New Hanover · until 2026-10-07 22:00

Quick questions

Where is Tropical Storm Isaias now?

Its center was at 22.8N, 92.4W when the NHC issued advisory 005a, which puts it 200 mi (325 km) WNW of Progreso, Mexico. Winds: 63 mph.

Where is Isaias going?

It is moving ENE at 8 mph (13 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Sun 1 PM about 416 miles from Charleston, as a post-tropical. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.

What category is Isaias?

Isaias is currently a tropical storm with 63 mph winds. It would need another 11 mph to become a hurricane.

When is the next Isaias update?

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

Straight from the source

NHC public advisory NHC graphics NHC forecast discussion National Weather Service