Wind
Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.
Hurricane RachelLive tracker
Strengthening · could reach Cat 3
Rachel is getting stronger and could reach Category 3, about 121 mph, by Fri 5 AM. Right now: 92 mph, 200 mi (320 km) WSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. No coastal watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: Cabo San Lucas, 201 mi (Fri 5 AM). Next NHC update: 2:00 AM MST.
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The next five daysTop sustained wind (mph) at each official NHC forecast point · dashed lines = category thresholds
Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 016. Models: ATCF run 2026100100 UTC.
The story of Rachel
Built from the NHC best track and the latest advisory.
It all began on September 25: a loose disturbance near 9.2°N 92.6°W. That was 6 days ago. Right now is its peak so far. Along the way its center has covered roughly 1,306 miles, or 2,102 km.
At the latest advisory Rachel is a category 1 with 92 mph winds and a central pressure of 975 mb, moving NW at 7 mph (11 km/h). Hurricane-force winds reach 35 miles from the center; tropical-storm-force winds stretch out to 150 miles, so the storm is about 300 miles wide.
The last point of the official forecast (Mon) shows a category 1 at 92 mph, about 537 miles from Cabo San Lucas. Before that it should peak near 121 mph around Fri 5 AM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 201 miles from Cabo San Lucas, around Fri 5 AM.
Closest approach
7 cities within 435 miles of Rachel’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.
Cabo San Lucas
201mi · 324 km
Fri 5 AMCategory 3
Outside cone
Puerto Vallarta
235mi · 378 km
Wed 8 PMCategory 1
Outside cone
Manzanillo
273mi · 439 km
Wed 8 PMCategory 1
Outside cone
La Paz
283mi · 456 km
Fri 5 PMCategory 3
Outside cone
Mazatlán
306mi · 492 km
Thu 5 AMCategory 2
Outside cone
Loreto
400mi · 643 km
Sat 5 PMCategory 2
Outside cone
Los Mochis
409mi · 658 km
Fri 5 AMCategory 3
Outside cone
Watches & warnings
As issued by the NHC in advisory 016.
No coastal watches or warnings for Rachel. The coastline can relax (for now).
Hazards
Rain, wind, surge and surf, straight from the advisory, with the numbers that matter highlighted.
Rainfall
Rachel is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at NHC graphic
Surf
Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
In the NHC’s words
Discussion and outlook from public advisory 016, quoted as issued.
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.5 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to move away from mainland Mexico and pass south of the Baja California Peninsula on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rachel could strengthen rapidly tonight and into Thursday and become a major hurricane within the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
Intensity
Rachel’s top sustained wind from its first fix to now (white) and what the NHC expects next (dashed orange).
Quick questions
Where is Hurricane Rachel now?
At the latest advisory (800 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026), the center of Rachel was near 19.2N, 108.5W, about 200 mi (320 km) WSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 92 mph (148 km/h).
Where is Rachel going?
It is moving NW at 7 mph (11 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Mon 5 PM about 537 miles from Cabo San Lucas, as a category 1. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.
What category is Rachel?
Rachel is currently a category 1 with 92 mph winds. Category 3 and up counts as major; it is 19 mph short of that.
When is the next Rachel update?
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.