Wind
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals today, with tropical storm conditions spreading westward from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef by Thursday.
Tropical Storm NoloLive tracker
Still bulking up
Nolo is getting stronger and could reach Category 2, about 109 mph, by Sun 2 PM. Right now: 46 mph, 190 mi (310 km) SSE of French Frigate Shoals. 1 coastal zone under watches or warnings. Closest pass to a city: Midway, 308 mi (Sun 2 PM). Next NHC update: 8:00 PM HST.
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TDTS12345ForecastPastConeHU WarningHU WatchTS WarningTS Watch
The next five daysTop sustained wind (mph) at each official NHC forecast point · dashed lines = category thresholds
Cone, track and warnings: NHC advisory 042. Models: ATCF run 2026100100 UTC.
The story of Nolo
Nolo’s life so far, from its first fix to today.
The first NHC best-track fix on Nolo dates from September 10, when it was a loose disturbance sitting near 10.5°N 108.5°W. Its strongest moment so far came on September 28, at 155 mph (category 4). Along the way its center has covered roughly 4,804 miles, or 7,729 km.
The current snapshot: 46 mph sustained winds, 999 mb of pressure and a track W at 1 mph (2 km/h). That makes Nolo a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 80 miles from the center.
By Mon, the end of the official forecast, the NHC expects a category 2 with 104 mph winds, about 616 miles from Midway. Before that it should peak near 109 mph around Sun 2 PM. The closest it gets to any city we track is 308 miles from Midway, around Sun 2 PM.
Closest approach
2 cities within 435 miles of Nolo’s official track, with the time and strength of the closest pass. Our math, interpolated hourly from the NHC points.
Midway
308mi · 495 km
Sun 2 PMCategory 2
Outside cone
Lihue
350mi · 563 km
Wed 5 PMTropical storm
Outside cone
Watches & warnings
As issued by the NHC in advisory 042.
Tropical Storm Warning
- The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to Maro Reef, including near French Frigate Shoals
Watch vs. warning, in plain English
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later this week.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Hazards
The NHC’s list of land impacts for Nolo.
Rainfall
Outer bands east of Nolo will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across Kauai, with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches. This rainfall could still produce instances of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain and water-logged soil.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at NHC graphic
Surf
Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please consult products from your local weather office.
In the NHC’s words
Discussion and outlook from public advisory 042, quoted as issued.
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 164.8 West. Nolo is moving drifting toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). An increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days as Nolo moves westward away from the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Intensity
Every six-hour reading of Nolo’s winds so far, plus the official forecast (dashed).
Quick questions
Where is Tropical Storm Nolo now?
190 mi (310 km) SSE of French Frigate Shoals, at 21.5N, 164.8W, according to the 500 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026 advisory. Top winds are 46 mph.
Where is Nolo going?
It is moving W at 1 mph (2 km/h). The official NHC forecast ends Mon 2 PM about 616 miles from Midway, as a category 2. The colored line on the map is that track; the white cone is the uncertainty around it.
What category is Nolo?
Nolo is currently a tropical storm with 46 mph winds. It would need another 28 mph to become a hurricane.
When is the next Nolo update?
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.